Realistic 2012 September Banlist Prediction

So last week I posted what I would thoroughly enjoy seeing come September 1st on the Forbidden and Limited list. Before Paul’s article was posted that week, I was unsure how the response would be from the Yu-Gi-Oh community. Hundreds of comments later it became quite clear that there is a criminal distortion between part of the Yu-Gi-Oh community and their understanding of the game. I am going to talk a little bit more about this next week when I conclude the ramifications of each banlist I posted. I think next week’s article is going to be one of the most important articles I’ve ever written, so look out for that. For the sake of catching the reader’s attention now, I am going to analyze several of the comments left on my article last week in specific and point out the issues with the reasoning a lot of readers came to last week. The idea that a banlist resembling the ones Paul, Pat and I posted last week would, “Ruin the game” or could be deemed as “insulting” is one most comical things I have ever heard about this. It is just that thinking that is restricting the players of this game from progressing and learning what steps they need to take to improve their game in the long run. You are never going to reach the level you desire if that was your line of thinking last week, and I am going to fill you in on some exponentially important stuff next week. So stayed tuned.

In the mean time, this week I am going to reverse the role I had last. Last week I took an approach to the September 1st banlist from the role of a highly competitive player, who has been playing for nearly a decade and actively attends all events. This week I am going to approach the list from the view point of Konami Digital Entertainment.

Why do these two stances differ so greatly?

Well, from the perspective of a competitive player, you want each and every format you play in to resemble one of high skilled play and little variance. The goal of a competitive player in analyzing banlists is to identify how much their skillset will be rewarded, and how much will each game be decided by arbitrary things – such as opening with Maxx “C” or Effect Veiler. The current format is a perfect example of one most competitive players have absolutely hated. So much is put into the draw step, that regardless of how well you are playing – so much is outside of your control. Even the best players in the world can struggle to do well this format because of how easy it is to encounter gamestates where they literally can do nothing.

Konami on the other hand has one entirely different goal in mind when they sit down and make the banlist. While the competitive masses hope and pray for a balanced and skilled format every six months, as comments last week showed, those individuals are in the minority. The majority of people who play this game do not go to every YCS, do not playtest with the same aggressive as YCS circuit players and in turn, are not usually on the same skill level as the circuit players. However, this majority are the ones who actually go out and purchase boxes of the new set the week they come out, or go out of their way to finally pull that third copy of Rescue Rabbit. These are the players who are going to purchase product, and in turn these are the players they are trying to appease with the banlist.

The second part of Konami’s reasoning is how well they are able to design sets, and banlists to force these types of players to accommodate to the trends at hand, and in turn purchase their products. By that I mean, regardless of the skill level of these players, every wants to win – and in order to do so they need what is winning. As I pointed out last week, Konami designs their banlists in such a way that recently released products, or ones in the near future, receive preferential treatment over competitive play. The example from the March 1st banlist is perfect. Wind-Ups, Inzektors and Dino-Rabbit remained untouched heading into March, even though everyone who played the game acknowledged they were far and away the best decks. However, the March 1st banlist created a tournament environment where you had to shell out the money for playsets of Wind-Up Rat, if you even wanted to seem like you had a chance of competing.

But the underlying and less obvious goal of Konami is to create variance in their game. I would love to play solely in formats where one’s ability dictates the outcome of every game – I feel like I would learn so much. I personally, would be pushed by such an environment to improve my own game in order to compete on the level I want to. However, not everyone has such a sentiment but still plays the game in order to feel the rush of victory. So Konami needs to, as a business, create an environment where everyone can win. Regardless of how long you have been playing the game, or if you couldn’t read a backrow to save your life – nowadays you can sit down and beat Billy Brake 2-0 in a matter of minutes. There is so much variance in the game, such an environment has been created. But that ability to defeat the games greats is just the goal Konami had in mind heading into March. It is no surprise that what most competitive players identify as the most skillful formats (TeleDAD or Goat Control to name a few) were often times flooded with pro players in the top cut. But attendance numbers were drastically lower than they are today. Of course the game has grown, but if you felt like Cesar and Adam were going to play circles around you in TeleDAD mirrors, why show up?

Those are the people Konami is targeting when they create the banlist.

So with all of this in mind, here is my realistic prediction for September 1st.
NEWLY FORBIDDEN:
Future Fusion
Monster Reborn

NEWLY LIMITED TO 1:
Inzektor Dragonfly
Magician of Faith
Red-Eyes Darkness Metal Dragon
Tribe-Infecting Virus
Wind-Up Carrier Zenmaity
Snatch Steal

NEWLY LIMITED TO 2:
Blackwing – Kalut the Moon Shadow
Gladiator Beast Bestiari
Rescue Rabbit
Tour Guide from the Underworld
Ceasefire

NEWLY UNLIMITED:
Lumina, Lightsworn Summoner
Necro Gardna
Summoner Monk
Level Limit – Area B
Shien’s Smoke Signal
Mind Crush

So I want to make it clear. I think this banlist is absolutely trash in terms of what it does for the game. It poorly addresses the problems at hand, but is what I can envision as a realistic banlist.

NEWLY FORBIDDEN:
Future Fusion
I actually trust Konami to acknowledge this card as too powerful. They realized it when they originally printed Chimeratech Overdragon, and made sure Future Fusion was limited to one off the bat. With the popularity of Elemental Heroes over in Asia, I am confident enough in Konami to actually do what is best for the game and get rid of this card. Though the decision would be more so based on the Asian meta, as opposed to our problem with Chaos Dragons.

Monster Reborn
Monster Reborn has gone back and forth off the banlist since it came back after being banned for what seemed like forever. Konami likes there to be an array of powerful spells in the game, especially ones that allow players to draw them and completely turn the tides of the game. These types of cards allow weaker players to steal wins from more skilled players, and give excitement to the draw step – one of the goals of Konami. But they also like to try and rotate some of the power spells back into the game and not overwhelm us with too many at once. I could see this September being the time that Monster Reborn leaves us once again.

NEWLY LIMITED TO 1:
Inzektor Dragonfly
Since Inzektors are the most popular deck in Asia, I think it is safe to say some type of dramatic restriction like Dragonfly is around the corner. I think more should be done to the deck, but I don’t see Konami actually doing that. This is a harsh restriction, but they do not like seeing one deck rise above all the other competition.

Magician of Faith
I can see Magician of Faith being unbanned, not because of any reasons that balance the game. More so because there is a slew of Spellcaster support upon the horizon. I almost went as far to unban Dark Magician of Chaos, but I think both would be over the top for Konami. Instead this unbanning, in the eyes of Konami, will help push their products later in the year – resulting in more revenue.

Red-Eyes Darkness Metal Dragon
Since Chaos Dragons are not as powerful in the OCG, Konami isn’t going to feel like they have to do a tremendous amount to them on the banlist. Simply limiting Red-Eyes to one will be sufficient enough to nip the Hieratic OTK, but in some less than ideal way damage Chaos Dragons. Although the reasoning is less than ideal since some Chaos Dragon builds only play one anyway.

Tribe-Infecting Virus
Unbanning Tribe is not a decision made because the card has become outdated – no, no no. Konami will unban Tribe because of how lethal he is with the new Aqua support coming out this year. The ability to trigger the effects of the Atlantean monsters makes him an instant staple in the archtype. This decision will be made without any preemptive strikes against cards like Genex Undine and will make for a very frustrating six months.

Wind-Up Carrier Zenmaity
This deck might not be winning as much in the OCG, but Konami did acknowledge it on their strategy site earlier this year. Now that a bandwagon effect has been caused after the NAWCQ, I think it is safe to safe there will be some type of action taken against the deck. Limiting the loop generating Zenmaity to one seems like the most logical decision. That way the deck can still function with Wind-Up Rat as more of a control deck.

Snatch Steal
Yup, this card should never see the light of day again – I know that. However, if Konami is going to ban Monster Reborn, I am willing to bet something comes off the list to replace it. Konami likes there being cards that can create such absurd momentum swings because weaker players can draw it and turn games they should have lost around. I feel like this and Brain Control are the most likely candidates. When Monster Reborn was unbanned the second time, Brain Control had just been banned. So there is certainly precedent for Konami making these types of decisions. And trust me, I am going to hate it.

NEWLY LIMITED TO 2:
Blackwing – Kalut the Moon Shadow
Just like last list Konami is going to start testing the waters with older archtypes. Last time Six Samurai and Lightsworns got to enjoy a few cards back off the banlist, and this time around I can see Blackwings and Gladiator Beasts enjoying the same treatment.

Gladiator Beast Bestiari
It may support Gyzarus spam decks, but I don’t think it does so in such the same degree that Konami thinks. With so much hate towards that stragegy nowadays, and the release of hand traps, I think Konami will reason enough to try a format with Bestiari back at 2.

Rescue Rabbit
Rescue Cat saw a drop from 3 to 2 before being limited to 1 and eventually banned. I think Konami is about to take the same approach with Rescue Rabbit since the card is not doing a tremendous amount abroad. Plus, Konami believes there is still room for other Rescue Rabbit archtypes. An overall decision I deem laughable.

Tour Guide from the Underworld
The OCG has yet to experience Tour Guide, and just like Charge of the Light Brigade from previous formats, I don’t see it being touched too dramatically. Konami will want to sell products to the OCG market, and a legal Tour Guide is sure to fly off the shelves. Limiting her to two will make some type of impact, but surely won’t dramatically affect sales abroad, and will still support the XYZ theme they are pushing.

Ceasefire
Konami always randomly moves cards to 2. Just like Magic Cylinder. So here is my random move.

NEWLY UNLIMITED:
Lumina, Lightsworn Summoner
Bringing Lumina to two did very little to the format. So with that experiment already completed, Konami will reason that she is safe to return to three.

Necro Gardna
Same reasoning as Lumina.

Summoner Monk
The card did very little at 2, and Konami surely wants people to use it for XYZ summons. Moving it up to 3 gives players that chance.

Level Limit – Area B
Shien’s Smoke Signal
Same idea as Lumina. This will also help push the sales of the Six Samurai structure deck around the world. Regardless of how degenerate this deck may be, this will help sales.

Mind Crush
With Trap Dustshoot banned, I think it is completely reasonable for Konami to unlimit this card to three.

How are we going to complain about the list this week?

Joe Giorlando

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