Reaslitic March 2013 Prediction Banlist

I guess it isn't too unreasonable to expect the type of response my article received last week. I mean, in similar fashion to last year, I got to look through truck loads of comments criticizing my sanity or other characteristics. I also got to look through comment after comment talking about how unrealistic my banlist was, which was yet again, a repeat of last year. However, just like last year, I mentioned how the article posted was a wishlist, meaning the likelihood of it becoming reality were anywhere between 0 and 0. But of course, instead of talking about the content, there was discussion about how realistic it was. Well, hopefully this week the list I promised is a bit more - realistic. Last season I actually got a fairly decent amount of the changes Konami made correct. For example, Future Fusion was banned; Inzektor Dragonfly, Red-Eyes Darkness Metal Dragon, Wind-Up Zenmaity all went to one; Rescue Rabbit, Tour Guide from the Underworld and Blackwing - Kalut the Moonshadow went to two; and Necro Gardna, Magic Cylinder and Level Limit - Area B went to three. Not too shabby. So maybe this time around I am able to correctly predict a few of the changes we should expect this upcoming March 1st.

Before I get into it though, as a general statement about my article last week. In response to the outcry I received last year, I wrote an article entitled, "The Article," if you have yet to read that article, but found my article last week disturbing - I strongly suggest checking that article out.

When predicting banlists, you are trying to get into the mind of Konami -who has the main objective of producing revenue over the course of the next six months. Recent history has shown, they are going to make decisions based on what will generate interest in their recent, and future products - as opposed to what may healthy for the game. So keep that in mind.

Anyway, time to get things started.


NEWLY FORBIDDEN:

Heavy Storm

Monster Reborn

NEWLY LIMITED TO ONE:

Evigishki Mind Augus

Rescue Rabbit

Summoner Monk

Wind-Up Shark

Wind-Up Factory

NEWLY LIMITED TO TWO:

Deep Sea Diva

Gladiator Beast Bestiari

Miracle Fusion

NEWLY UNLIMITED:

Lumina, Lightsworn Summoner

Reasoning

 

 

 

Heavy Storm

While I do not think Heavy Storm ever should be banned again, I feel like Konami is setting it up for yet another trip to the banlist. With the reliance on Spell and Trap cards, the newly released Fire Fist archtype is going out of the way to use multiple copies of Starlight Road as a counter to the power Spell card. In conjunction with the release of the Fire Fists archtype, the underplayed Night Beam is presently sitting as a less than appealing relatively new release. By banning Heavy Storm, Konami is not only assisting the playability of their new Fire Fist archtype, they are sparking interest in a chase Ultra Rare from another recent set. It may not be the healthiest move for the game, but it is certainly a decision I see them making.

Monster Reborn

I predicted this last year, and was wrong. Hopefully this time around Konami pulls the trigger. This card has been lingering around on the chopping block for several formats now. I am going to include this on my prediction list until the day it gets banned again - it is just the most obvious card.

Evigishki Mind Augus

While the recent FTK may not have been widely spread the entire format, Konami has known about the Mind Augus loop the entire format. They usually hedge against these type of decks existing, so I envision them making this cut.

Rescue Rabbit

As I said last year, Rescue Cat took a trip on the forbidden list that ticked it down one every six months. Seeing as how we saw Rescue Rabbit at two last September, it will be right on time for it to be restricted to one.

Summoner Monk

I either see Summoner Monk going to one or three, which I know sounds crazy. But Konami is either going to look at the Harpie OTK and want to push the archtype by moving Summoner Monk up on the banlist. Or, in a similar fashion to Mind Augus, decide that they should make a strike against the deck. I am leaning toward Konami putting Summoner Monk to one, but I would not be surprised if the money signs push it toward three.

Wind-Up Shark/Wind-Up Factory

Wind-Ups are yesterdays news in the eyes of Konami. They have been a force in the last three formats, and after the unsuccessful limitation of Zenmaity in September, Konami will finally tryi and flush the archtype out of the format, as a maneuver to force the player base to buy into the new Mermail and Fire Fist archtypes. These are the type of decision Konami almost always makes, and eliminately Wind-Ups from the format will make Abyssmegalo and Bear the most sought after cards the next six months.

Deep Sea Diva

Konami tends to make menial changes to certain decks, which just barely touch their percentages against the other decks in the format. Limiting Deep Sea Diva to two would essentially do nothing to the Mermail deck, which is a perfect line of thought if you want to motivate players to construct expensive Mermail Atlanteaon decks. However, Konami can at least make it seem like they were aware of the archtype, and that they made a dramatic limitation on its power level.

Gladiator Beast Bestiari

I predicted this last year, and it did not happen. Now I feel a little bit more comfortable with my prediction because of the recent Beast-Warrior support. While Fire Fists received the most support in the last set, there are a considerable amount of Beast-Warrior Gladiator Beast monsters. This move on the banlist may spark the return of Gladiator Beasts, and in the eyes of Konami, that may mean a player base seeking cards from their new set.

Miracle Fusion

Last year Konami made a few hits to the Elemental Hero stragedy, putting both E - Emergency Call and A Hero Lives to two. Assuming they want to continue these minor changes to the archtype, I would find it completely reasonable to see Miracle Fusion go down to one. It would have no real effect on the playability of the deck, but just screams the type of decision Konami would make.

Lumina, Lightsworn Summoner

Konami keeps testing the water with their unrestrictions on the Lightsworn archtype. Last time around we saw Necro Gardna jump back up to three, and yet again, Lightsworns were unplayable. Even with a third Lumina, I would not envision Lightsworn being much of a player in the upcoming format - but it is exactly the type of move they would make.

Reasoning

My Reasoning on Reasoning (I had to) is really quite simple. Konami tends to test the waters when they unlimit a card that was once abusive, and last time around we saw Reasoning go to two. What deck would play three right now? Exactly the reason why I see Konami put this card to three. Maybe in six months we can talk about Monster Gate...

As a conclusion to my predictions, I think it is painfully obvious that the best decks would continue to be Mermail and Fire Fists, the absolute perfect outcome for Konami. The older decks from the beginning of the current format are no longer playable (Dino-Rabbit and Wind-Ups), and now people need to switch over to the new archtypes. Exactly how the March 2012 format was presented to us - when the Wind-Up loop remain untouched.

 

Joe Giorlando

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